Race to 2027 – Battle for Kenya’s Main Voting Blocs Begins

As Kenya gears up for the 2027 presidential election, the numbers are clear: winning the race to State House will require a solid grip on the country’s major voting blocs.

With President William Ruto seeking re-election and opposition leader Rt hon Kalonzo Musyoka positioning himself as a top challenger, the battle lines are drawn.

According to the latest voter statistics, Mt. Kenya remains the single largest bloc with 7.01 million votes (31%), followed by Luhya (12.5%), Kalenjin (12.4%), Luo (12.4%), and Kamba (10.5%). These five communities alone control nearly 80% of the vote, making their support critical for any presidential hopeful.

The Ruto Factor

President Ruto, having secured the presidency in 2022 with strong backing from the Kalenjin, Mt. Kenya, and sections of the Luhya and Kisii vote, will be keen on maintaining this support. His influence in Mt. Kenya remains strong, but internal cracks, economic concerns, and emerging political realignments could test his grip.

Kalonzo’s Bid for the Presidency

On the other hand, Kalonzo Musyoka, the Wiper Party leader, is determined to consolidate the Kamba vote (2.32 million) while making inroads into other strongholds. His success will largely depend on whether he can rally the opposition, including Raila Odinga’s Luo base and a significant portion of the Luhya community.

Key Battlegrounds

The Luhya vote (2.76 million) remains one of the most unpredictable, with leaders like Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula influencing its direction. The Kisii (4.9%), Mijikenda (4.5%), and Somali (3.8%) blocs will also be critical swing votes in shaping the final outcome.

With alliances shifting and new coalitions forming, the next two years will be crucial in determining who between Ruto and Kalonzo— or any other emerging candidate—will successfully consolidate these numbers and clinch the presidency.

Kenya’s political landscape remains dynamic, and as history has shown, the race is never won on numbers alone but on strategy, alliances, and ground mobilization. The battle for 2027 has only just begun.